Is Iran at the Brink?

As events unfold in Tehran, the world watches as Iran goes through an upheaval that the government and clerics did not anticipate.

Was the election "stolen"?

In all probability, it was.

Consider that voter turnout was extremely high, extraordinary in fact. Ballots are paper, not electronic. Thus, when the Ayatollah congratulated I'm-a-ring-ding (Ahmadinejad) just four hours after the polls closed, the world knew it was a rigged election. How is it possible to count millions of paper ballots in a largely rural country and reach a conclusion in less than four hours? Here in the U.S., where the vast bulk of voting is done by machine or electronically, it can take 24 hours to declare a winner.

Presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi has argued that the election should be thrown out and a new election scheduled immediately. Mousavi claimed that some ballot boxes had been sealed before voting began, that thousands of his representatives had been expelled from many polling stations and mobile polling stations had ballot boxes filled with fake ballots.

I see no reason not to believe Mousavi and every reason to think that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had handpicked Ahmadinejad for another term.

So, how will this end? The internal politics of Iran are as convoluted as a "Slinky". One of the wildcards is former president Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani, who has supported Mousavi during the campaign. Some hope that Rafsanjani will demand that the election be nullified. However, there is reason to think that this will not happen.

Yesterday, Ayatollah Khamenei praised Rafsanjani, stating that he was one of the revolution's architects and a valuable political leader. He went on to say that the two have "many differences of opinion." The second part is much more significant than the first. Khamenei also stated that Ahmadinejad was his preference and that the President's views were closer to his own. It is quite obvious that Rafsanjani has a strong dislike for Ahmadinejad, but may not have the political capital to support a new election without facing major repurcussions.

As it stands, the protests do not have enough political power to change the outcome of the phoney election. Ultimate power resides with the clerics and the leaders of Revolutionary Guards.

This does not mean that the protests will not have an influence, they will. What it means is that Iran will remain in political turmoil for the foreseeable future and that undermines Ahmadinejad and makes him appear weakened.

Therefore, you can expect even greater blather and defiance towards the west as Ahmadinejad attempts to reestablish his percieved power. Ahmadinejad's problem is that he will now lead a polarized nation with a seething hatred for the clerics and the President, and that will be a major distraction. It's now only a matter of time before this rotting house collapses from its own weight. Yet, it will take years to eat away the foundation.